tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7805174.post2472960348540555011..comments2023-10-19T03:06:44.613-07:00Comments on AMac: Tiljander Proxies' Modest Effects on Mann08 Estimates... probablyAMachttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08872008617279528583noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7805174.post-4051042859509752692010-08-06T14:05:12.312-07:002010-08-06T14:05:12.312-07:00I liked your sharing this, Amac. Thumbs up, man.
...I liked your sharing this, Amac. Thumbs up, man.<br /><br />Watch out for Jeff. He can be slow to understand his own errors...can be bullheaded.scipolynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7805174.post-50872950407152061082010-07-15T14:16:12.411-07:002010-07-15T14:16:12.411-07:00Well you know now that he's an honest broker o...Well you know now that he's an honest broker of what he finds.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00102232063298547788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7805174.post-90863639121735462662010-07-15T13:14:00.893-07:002010-07-15T13:14:00.893-07:00Thanks for confirming my point Jeff. I still think...Thanks for confirming my point Jeff. I still think Amacs retractions are premature. This does not mean I think he is 'right' or whatever, merely that any conclusions in any direction from the estimates, are dubious.Chucklesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7805174.post-82040259539264039322010-07-15T08:04:39.587-07:002010-07-15T08:04:39.587-07:00which contained a different set of data.
which co...which contained a different set of data.<br /><br />which contained a different subset of available proxy data.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00102232063298547788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7805174.post-92207813177730429712010-07-15T08:03:37.001-07:002010-07-15T08:03:37.001-07:00While it's good to see honor in skeptics, I do...While it's good to see honor in skeptics, I don't think that just because Tiljander didn't reverse the conclusions means you were so solidly wrong. consider that they had to use the proxies upside down in a purely nonsensical fashion. When confronted, Mann gave the sophists answer that multivariate methods are insensitive rubbish - which avoids the point that the data is supposed to be temperature the other way!!<br /><br />Clearly then, the data isn't temperature. <br /><br />Why are they using it at all? <br /><br />My weights were just estimates, since running this analysis Ryan Nic and SteveM have replicated RegEM for the Steig et al rebuttal and I now understand that different weights were applied to each year which contained a different set of data. Therefore, this method which used a single weight per series, keeping the same import for each proxy through time, cannot match Mann08. <br /><br />Perhaps you still aren't wrong! I still suspect a small weight from these series as from memory they have only weak - near zero- values. A correlation analysis of the available proxies in the 100-800 AD timeframe should give some hints.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00102232063298547788noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7805174.post-54511182948134613942010-07-13T10:11:29.387-07:002010-07-13T10:11:29.387-07:00Thanks for your remarks, Chuckles. I have added t...Thanks for your remarks, Chuckles. I have added two Edits to clarify the meaning of "I was wrong."<br /><br />I could add that the key questions about the changes that the Tiljander proxies cause to the spaghetti traces have to do with (1) the magnitude of the differences in temperature anomaly that is caused by their inclusion (or exclusion), and (2) the effect of their inclusion/exclusion on the uncertainty estimates. <br /><br />"I was wrong" means I now think that the magnitude of the change to the traces is likely modest -- consistent with what is shown in twice-revised Fig. S8a.<br /><br />I have no idea how removal of the faux-calibrated Tiljander proxies would affect the size of the calculated error bars. The uncertainty estimates are in some ways as important as the anomaly traces themselves. Mann08's S8a doesn't allow this comparison, and Jeff Id's graph doesn't shed any light here.<br /><br />Much will have to wait until I can learn R...AMachttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08872008617279528583noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7805174.post-4203707802638606132010-07-13T09:25:52.439-07:002010-07-13T09:25:52.439-07:00Not sure what you are trying to say here Amac? You...Not sure what you are trying to say here Amac? You start by asserting something that I do understand, that you have spent some time debating on Tiljander proxies and their use upside down or not as input data to published research.<br />You then go on to say that because some assumptions used to produce an admittedly imperfect replication quantifying the input and of the output of this work, your debating points are wrong.<br />I'm not sure I see or understand how the one follows from the other?<br /><br />I'd also note in passing that your recent opposite number on these subjects is not someone I would characterise as ever acting in good faith, and hence not worth wasting your time, but hey, I'm also often wrong.Chucklesnoreply@blogger.com